Area 04 / 07
Tools to measure markets, not to guess them.
In progress · 2026
A lab for the crypto futures market. Not a bot that predicts price: it measures what actually moves markets and publishes what it finds, including when it finds nothing.
It includes a prediction-markets console with Rust watchers for Polymarket, Binance and Bybit: read-only, no wallet and no order execution.
Context & problem · Routes considered · Outcome: Case being documented. I'll walk you through it on a call.
Research · 2026
A real-time mispricing detector for Polymarket BTC binary markets: it measures market-maker lag (~14 ms) in the last 8–15 s of each 5-minute window using 24 microstructure features from Binance, HyperLiquid, Bybit and OKX.
Case being documented. I'll walk you through it on a call.
Verifiable predictive reputation on prediction markets: follow forecasters with a real track record and separate judgment from noise.
Case being documented. I'll walk you through it on a call.
In progress · 2026
My own take on Flowsurface, a Rust desktop charting app for crypto markets, extended with microstructure indicators (VWAP, volume profile, CVD, VPIN) and a live strategy-detection engine.
Case being documented. I'll walk you through it on a call.